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CAFX Market Update 06/1/2023

Welcome to our daily market update, where we help keep you informed on the latest happenings in the world of FX.
If you have any questions or would like anything further explained, please don’t hesitate to reach out to your account manager or email info@cafx.com

MACRO REPORT

The Aussie dollar has taken a heavy hit after US employment data released sent the Greenback into an aggressive rally. The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.6755 at the time of writing, down 1.11% for the day.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) hit a four-week high as it climbed toward the 105.00 mark after reports released overnight indicated a strong jobs market supporting the prospect that the Fed can continue at its pace of rate hikes and keep interest rates elevated for longer.

US ADP Employment Change printed an increase in private payrolls by 235K in December, far exceeding the market forecast of 150K. Initial jobless claims indicated a decline in weekly jobless claims to 204K versus the 225K consensus, marking the lowest level since September.

Tomorrow, the primary focus will be the set of US labour market data, including payrolls and wage figures crucial to shaping the Fed’s stance. In light of upbeat cues from earlier this morning’s ADP employment data, it is possible that the US Nonfarm Payrolls will release better-than-forecast; however, it is worth noting ADP methodology for calculating its Employment Change has recently changed and they have said that it is not to be used as a leading indicator for Nonfarm Payrolls.

KEY DATA TO WATCH

Japan Services PMI (Dec)
United Kingdom Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (Dec)
Construction PMI (Dec)
Eurozone Core CPI (YoY)
CPI (MoM)
CPI (YoY) (Dec)
Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
PCE Price index (YoY) (Sep)
United States Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Dec)
Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)
Participation Rate (Dec)
Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)
Unemployment Rate (Dec)

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