Data:
Monday:
- No real impactful data
Tuesday
- AUD Flash Manufacturing PMI: prev. 58.2 & Service PMI: prev. 51.8
- EUR French Flash Service PMI: exp. 55.1 & Service PMI: exp. 53.1
- EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI: exp. 56.6 & Service PMI: exp. 51.4
- EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI: exp. 57.2 & Service PMI: exp. 53.6
- GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI: exp. 57.2 & Service PMI: exp. 58.2
Wednesday
- USD Flash Manufacturing PMI: exp. 59.0 & Service PMI: exp. 59.1
- AUD CB Leading Index Oct: prev. 0.4%
- NZD Official Cash Rate: exp. 0.75%
- NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
- NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
- NZD RBNZ Press Conference
Thursday
- USD Prelim GDP Q3: exp. 2.2%
- USD Core Durable Goods Order Oct: exp. 0.5%
- USD Durable Goods Orders Oct: exp. 0.2%
- USD Unemployment Claims: exp. 259K
- USD Core PCE Price Index Oct: 0.4%
- USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment: exp. 66.8
- USD Crude Oil Inventories: prev. -2.1M
- USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Friday
- US Bank Holiday
- EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
- GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
- AUD Retail Sales Oct: exp. 2.6%
Saturday
- USD Treasury Currency Report (Tentative)
AUDUSD Day’s Range: 0.72269 – 0.72914
Coming into the back end of the month we have no real impactful economic data being released today, but we have the manufacturing and service PMIs coming from the U.S., Australia, and European countries later this week. These PMIs would be the main focus if it were normal times, but growth prospects are not the key driver of the investment climate under the current economic environment. The U.S. October PCE deflator will be an important data in the coming days give the market’s sensitivity to inflation. Later in the week the RBNZ is likely to move again. A rate hike of RBNZ on Wednesday is almost certain, the real question now is whether it will increase 25 basis points or 50 basis points.
On Friday night the EURUSD dropped as Austria announced a lockdown for all citizens including those who are vaccinated. Fed Vice-Chair Clarida acknowledges that the Fed may need to increase its pace of tapering in the face of surging inflation. The USD was stronger on the comments, the DXY dollar index touched above the 96.00 level. Risk aversion seems to be the theme, with AUDJPY and AUDCHF dropped as investors weigh the possibility that data in the coming days will impact the market.
AUDUSD Daily Chart:
Major moves in the market:
Stocks
- The S&P 500 lose 0.14%, closed at 4697.96
- The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.08%, closed at 16588.25
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.75%, closed at 35601.98
- S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.23%, closed at 7396.50
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.51%
- The EURUSD fell 0.04 to $1.1286
- The GBPUSD rose 0.01% to $1.3452
- The USDJPY fell 0.01% to 113.980 per dollar
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries gained 4 basis point to 1.55%
- Germany’s 10-year yield declined 7 basis points to -0.35%
- Britain’s 10-year yield declined 4 basis points to 0.88%
Commodities
- Brent crude oil was at USD/Bbl 78.89
- Gold was at USD/OZ 1845.00
- Iron ore was at USD/T 92.78