Data:
Monday
- BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
- NZD CPI q/q: exp.1.5% vs. 2.2%
- CNY GDP q/y: exp. 5.0% vs. 4.9%
- CNY Retail Sales y/y: exp. 3.5% vs. 4.4%
Tuesday
- USD Industrial Production m/m: 0.3% vs.-1.3%
- AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Wednesday
- GBP CPI y/y: exp. 3.2% vs.3.1%
- CAD CPI m/m: prev. 0.1% vs.0.2%
Thursday
- USD Crude Oil Inventories: exp. 6.1M vs. -0.4M
- USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: exp. 25.1 vs. 23.8
- USD Unemployment Claims: exp. 298K vs. 290K
Friday
- AUD Gov Lowes Speaks
- GBP Retail Sales m/m: exp. 0.7%
- EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI: exp. 54.3
- EUR German Flash Service PMI: exp. 55.2
- EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI: exp. 55.6
- EUR Flash Service PMI: exp. 54.5
Saturday:
- USD Flash Manufacturing PMI: exp. 60.5
- USD Flash Service PMI: 55.3
- USD Treasury Currency Report
AUDUSD Day’s Range: 0.75465 – 0.74585
Looking back to the week, China’s third-quarter GDP figure grew at a disappointing rate of 4.9% as industrial activity rose less than expected in September, retail sales were at 4.4%, better than the market expectation of 3.5%. The RBA meeting minutes on Wednesday reinforced the condition for a rate hike – return to full employment and actual inflation between 2% – 3%. U.S. jobless claims hit another pandemic-era low last week, indicating a tightening labor market. The advance figure for the seasonally adjusted initial claim was 290,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level.
AUDUSD continued to move higher yesterday due to the bullish momentum, touching a high of 0.75465, however, the sentiment turned sour in the afternoon as investors concerned about Evergrande’s default risk. AUDJPY dropped sharply as demand for safe-haven JPY increased. Evergrande has until this weekend to pay its $83.5 million coupons, and if Evergrande fails to pay before the grace period ends, then there will be a severe consequence. Chief economics and director of the World Bank said the surge in energy price poses significant near-term risks to global inflation and could weigh on growth in energy-importing countries.
AUDUSD Daily Chart:
Major move in the market:
Stocks
- The S&P 500 rose 0.3% , closed at 4549.78
- The Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.52%, closed at 15397.75
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.02%, closed at 35603.08
- S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.02%, closed at 7415.40
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
- The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1623
- The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3788
- The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 114.02 per dollar
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 1.68%
- Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to -0.10%
- Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 1.20%
Commodities
- Brent crude oil was at USD/Bbl 84.46
- Gold was at USD/OZ 1783.92
- Iron ore was at USD/T 122.89