17/09/2021 Friday

Data:

Monday

• No real impactful data

Tuesday

• USD Federal Budget Balance: Exp -260.5B vs. -170.6B
• RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
• GBP Unemployment rate: Exp 4.6% vs.4.6%
• USD August CPI m/m: Exp 0.4% vs. 0.3%
• USD August Core CPI m/m: Exp 0.3% vs. 0.1%

Wednesday

• USD CPI m/m :Exp 0.4% vs. 0.3%
• USD Core CPI m/m: Exp 0.3% vs. 0.1%
• CNY Retail Sales y/y: Exp 6.9% vs. 2.5%
• CNY industrial production y/y: Exp 5.8% vs. 5.3%
• CNY Unemployment Rate: Exp 5.1% vs. 5.1%
• GBP CPI y/y: Exp 2.9% vs. 3.2%
• CAD CPI August m/m: prev 0.6% vs. 0.2%
• USD Empire State Manufacturing Index: Exp 17.1 vs.34.3
• USD August Industrial Production m/m: Exp 0.5% vs. 0.4%

Thursday

• USD Crude oil inventories: prev -1.5M vs. -6.4M
• NZD GDP q/q: Exp 1.2% vs.2.8%
• AUD Employment change: Exp -80.0K vs.-146.3K
• AUD Unemployment rate: Exp 4.9% vs.4.5%
• EUR President Lagarde Speaks
• USD August Core retail sales m/m: -0.2% vs.1.8%
• USD August retail sales m/m: exp. -0.8% vs. 0.7%
• USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: exp. 18.9 vs.30.7
• USD unemployment rate: exp. 316K vs. 332K

Friday

• GBP August Retail sales m/m: exp. 0.5%

Saturday & Sunday

• No real impactful data

AUDUSD Day’s Range: 0.72754 – 0.73479

The Chinese data released yesterday missed the market, with CNY Retail Sales drop the most as the Delta outbreak negatively impacted consumer sentiment. The AUDUSD weakened after the release, posting a fresh low of 0.72754.  Treasury yields and the dollars advanced due to the surprising strength in U.S. retail sales.

 

U.S. retail sales increased in August unexpectedly, removing the worries of the impact of delta variant and highlight the case for Federal Reserve to begin reducing stimulus. The increase is likely boosted by back-to-school shopping and child tax credit payments from the government. Retail sales rose 0.7% last month. Another report from the Labour Department showed initial claims for state jobless benefit rose 20,000 to seasonally adjusted 332,000 for the week ended 11^th September. The number of people continues to receive the benefit after an initial week of aid dropped 187,000 to 2.665million in the week ended 4^th September.

 

RBA Gov Lowe’s speech on Wednesday indicates that the monetary policy will continue to focus on keeping funding costs and lending rates low to ensure a liquid financial system and a lower exchange rate. RBA will continue to purchase $4 billion of bonds each week until mid-February 2022 and RBA will not increase the cash rate until the actual inflation is within the 2 to 3 percent target range, and requires wage growth to be at least 3 percent. U.S. consumer prices increased at their slowest pace in six months in August caused by a fall in motor vehicle prices, indicating that inflation has peaked.

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AUDUSD Daily Chart:

Major moves in the market:

Stocks

• The S&P 500 fell 0.16%, closed at 4473.75
• The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.13%, closed at 15181.92
• S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.58%, closed at 7460.20

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
• The euro was at $1.1767
• The offshore yuan was at 6.4535 per dollar
• The Japanese yen was at 109.72 per dollar

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 1.34%

Commodities

• Brent crude oil was at USD/Bbl 72.66
• Gold was at USD/OZ 1754.20
• Iron ore was at USD/T 119.96