Welcome to our daily market update, where we help keep you informed on the latest happenings in the world of FX.
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Key Data Being Released Today
| Australia | – | ANZ Business Confidence (Oct) | |||
| CPI (QoQ) (Q3) | |||||
| Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) (Q3) | |||||
| United States | – | Goods Trade Balance (Sep) | |||
| Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep) | |||||
Macro Report
The Aussie dollar has found support from a sinking US dollar amid cautious market optimism and pre-FOMC meeting silence. The US dollar (via the DXY index) remains vulnerable around the 110.00 threshold, displaying weakness as it struggles to reclaim its 112.00 figure from the week-start.
The US house price and consumer confidence data falling below expectations indicate signs of economic deterioration. Disappointing data has resurfaced concerns about the risks associated with the Fed’s aggressive tightening path, with hopes of monetary policy easing in the coming months.
The AUD/USD pair currently lies below the 0.6400 level at 0.6380, following a near 100-pip rally overnight.
Scheduled for release today is Aussie Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, where headline inflation rate is forecasted to show a 7% rise in Q3, compared to the prior figure of 6.1% on an annual basis. If accurate, this would mark the highest figure since 1990. While the quarterly CPI read is expected to soften to 1.6% versus a previous 1.8%, Trimmed Mean CPI (Q3) is forecasted at 5.6% (YoY) versus 4.9% in the last quarter, well above the RBA’s target range of 2 to 3%. If prices come in hotter than expected, an upside surprise may fuel an Aussie dollar rally as it could prompt the RBA to pivot its monetary policy stance.
AUD/USD Daily Chart
DXY (USD INDEX) Daily Chart
Major Global Markets
| Currencies | Level | Change (%) | |
| AUD/USD | 0.6380 | -0.22 | |
| AUD/JPY | 94.4820 | -0.12 | |
| AUD/CNH | 4.6620 | 0.95 | |
| DXY | 110.9500 | -0.93 | |
| Rates | Yield (%) | Change | |
| US 10 Year | 4.10 | -3.12 | |
| Aus 10 Year | 3.94 | -3.44 | |
| Equities | Level | Change (%) | |
| S&P 500 | 3,859.11 | 1.63 | |
| NASDAQ | 11,199.12 | 2.25 | |
| ASX 200 | 6,798.60 | 0.28 | |
| Commodities | Level | Change (%) | |
| Iron Ore | 95.50 | 1.06 | |
| Gold | 1,658.00 | 0.24 | |
| Brent Crude oil | 93.19 | -0.08 |