Data:
Monday
- No Real Impactful event
Tuesday
- USD ISM Manufacturing PMI: exp. 60.4 vs.60.8
- AUD Cash Rate: exp. 0.1% vs. 0.1%
- AUD RBA Rate Statement
Wednesday
- NZD Employment Change Q3: exp. 0.4% vs. 2.0%
- NZD Unemployment rate: exp. 3.9% vs. 3.4%
- CNY Caixin Service PMI: exp. 53.6 vs. 53.8
- USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: exp. 400K vs. 571K
Thursday
- USD ISM Service PMI: exp. 61.9 vs. 66.7
- USD FOMC Statement
- USD Federal Fund Rate: exp. 0.25% vs.0.25%
- USD FOMC Press Conference
- All OPEC-JMMC Meetings
- GBP Asset Purchase Facility: exp. 875B vs.875B
- GBP BOE Monetary Policy & Summary
- GBP Official Bank Rate: exp. 0.1% vs. 0.1%
Friday
- CAD Employment Change: prev. 157.1K
- CAD Unemployment Rate: prev. 6.9%
- USD Non-Farm Employment Change: exp. 455K
- USD Unemployment Rate: exp. 4.7%
Saturday:
- USD Treasury Currency Report
AUDUSD Day’s range: 0.73829 – 0.74708
Central banks are the focus of this week’s data. RBA announced on Tuesday will remain the cash rate at 0.10% but abandon yield curve control. RBA Governor Lowe pushed back the market bets on early rate hike and indicates the rate hike is highly likely to be in 2024 but is still possible to increase the rate in 2023. The Federal Reserve announced a $15 billion per month tapering of its Q.E. program and admitted that the inflation outlook is more uncertain. USD appreciated against most of the majors. The AUDUSD touched a low of 0.73829 but recovered slightly throughout the session as investors digest the impact of the Fed’s action in the medium term. The Bank of England (BOE) kept the interest rate unchanged and disappointed some investors who believe the BOE will be the first big central bank to raise borrowing costs. Meanwhile, ECB is aware of people’s concern about high inflation but is very unlikely to raise interest rates as early as next year.
The U.S. labour market is tightening, with the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits falling to the lowest level since nearly 20 months last week. According to the Labour Department, the initial claims for statement unemployment benefit fell to 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 269,000 for the week ended 30th October. However, another report shows that labour costs have increased at an 8.3% annualized rate in the third quarter and worker productivity fell at a 5.0% rate last quarter, the biggest drop since the second quarter of 1981.
If you want to discuss how a how we can help your business protect itself from further declines in the AUD/USD, please get in contact your account manager or email us on sales@cafx.com
AUDUSD Daily Chart:
Major moves in the market:
Stocks
- The S&P 500 rose 0.42% , closed at 4680.06
- The Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.02%, closed at 16326.75
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.09%, closed at 36124.23
- S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.48%, closed at 7428.00
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
- The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1557
- The British pound fell 1.4% to $1.3502
- The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 113.71 per dollar
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 1.52%
- Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to -0.22%
- Britain’s 10-year yield declined 13 basis points to 0.94%
Commodities
- Brent crude oil was at USD/Bbl 74.49
- Gold was at USD/OZ 1790.57
- Iron ore was at USD/T 97.17