Data:
Monday:
- No real impactful events
Tuesday:
- RBA Rate Statement: unchanged
- AUD Cash rate: exp. 0.10% vs. 0.10%
Wednesday:
- USD ISM Service PMI: Exp. 59.9 vs. 61.9
- EUR President Lagarde Speaks
- USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
- NZD Official Cash Rate: Exp. 0.50% vs.0.50%
- RBNZ Rate Statement
- USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: Exp. 425K vs.568K
Thursday:
- USD Crude Oil Inventories: exp. 0.8M vs. 2.3M
- USD Unemployment claims: exp. 350K vs. 326K
Friday:
- CAD Employment Change: exp. 59.5K
- CAD Unemployment Rate: exp. 6.9%
- USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m: exp. 0.4%
- USD Non-Farm Employment Change: exp. 490K
- USD Unemployment Rate: exp. 5.10%
AUDUSD Day’s Range: 0.72976 – 0.73244
China comes back from their Golden Week holiday, leading to a rebound in commodity prices but also brings back the risks that Evergrande would still have an adverse impact on the development of the local market. Chinese technology stocks listed in the U.S. advanced for a third straight day yesterday after Asian stocks strengthened on improved risk appetite. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China index rallied 5.1% – the biggest jump since late August.
Back to Australia, the new NSW Premier Perrottet took a more aggressive re-opening plan with retractions set to ease on 11th October (Next Monday). The re-opening of the economy seems to provide a bullish momentum for AUDUSD but investors still need to be aware of the risks from China, that is, the aftermath of Evergrande’s event.
The U.S. equities rallied yesterday, supported by the progress on U.S. debt ceiling talks and investors’ concern about Europe’s energy crunch eases. The number of Americans filing new jobless claims dropped by the most in the three months last week, indicating the labor market is experiencing a strong recovery. The ADP Non-Farm employment changes on Wednesday were well above market estimate (Exp. 425K vs.568K), however, the correlation to the major employment data on Friday is questionable. U.S. Treasury yields rose 5 basis points to 1.57% as investors started to price in the prospect of a rebound in the global growth as vaccination level increases.
AUDUSD Daily Chart:
Major moves in the market:
Stocks
- The S&P 500 rose 0.83%, closed at 4399.76
- The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.12%, closed at 14899.00
- S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.7%, closed at 7256.70
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
- The euro was little changed at $1.1554
- The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3617
- The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 111.60 per dollar
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 1.57%
- Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at -0.19%
- Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 1.08%
Commodities
- Brent crude oil was at USD/Bbl 78.80
- Gold was at USD/OZ 1755.65
- Iron ore was at USD/T 118.10