Data:
Monday
- No real impactful data
Tuesday
- AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Wednesday
- JPY Monetary Policy Statement
Thursday
- USD Crude Oil Inventory: prev. -6.4M vs.-3.5M
- USD FOMC Economic Projections
- USD FOMC Statement
- USD Federal Funds Rate: <0.25%
- USD FOMC Press Conference
- CNF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
- EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI: Exp. 61.3 vs. 58.5
- EUR German Flash Service PMI: Exp. 60.3 vs.56.0
- CAD Core Retail Sales m/m: Exp. -1.5% vs.-1.0%
- CAD Retail Sales m/m: Exp. -1.2% vs. 0.6%
- USD Unemployment Claims: Exp. 322K vs. 351K
- USD Flash Manufacturing PMI: Exp. 60.7 vs. 60.5
- USD Flash Service PMI: Exp. 55.1 vs. 54.4
Friday
- EUR Germain IFO Business Climate: Exp. 99.0
Saturday
- USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
AUDUSD Day’s Range: 0.72232 – 0.73157
The FOMC meeting yesterday indicate that the U.S. economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen due to the increasing vaccination rate and the strong policy support. FOMC believes the high inflation is transitory and aims to achieve maximum employment and long-term inflation at 2%. The Federal Reserve will continue to monitor the incoming economic outlook and adjust the stance of the policy if appropriate. The Fed could begin to reduce asset purchases in November and complete the process by mid-2022. The Bank of England(BoE) forecasted that inflation will be over 4% at the end of 2021, which is more than twice its target rate. The BoE said that the case for a higher interest rate has strengthened, opened the door to a 2021 rate hike. RBA on the other hand, said on Tuesday, that it will continue to purchase $4 billion of bonds each week but extend the period until mid-February next year. The rate hike condition for RBA is at least 3 percent wage growth and the actual inflation is within 2 to 3 percent.
Asian stocks took a steady open on after U.S. equities rallied and sovereign bond yield advanced on economic optimism and easing fears from China’s Evergrande debt crisis. The prospect of tighter monetary policy leads to a global selloff in bonds. Long-term Treasury yields rallied the most in 18 months as traders expect a rate hike from the Federal Reserve to increase their interest rate at the end of 2022, which is earlier than the previous expectation.
China’s goal of reducing steel production and aim to have a production level lower than the 2020 level lead to the drop in commodity prices in the past few weeks. It will also have an impact on the AUD in the long run since China is Australia’s biggest iron ore export partner.
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AUDUSD Daily Chart:
Major moves in the market:
Stocks
- The S&P 500 rose 1.21%, closed at 4448.98
- The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.04%, closed at 15052.24
- S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.1%, closed at 7370.20
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%
- The euro was at $1.1742
- The British pound was at $1.3725
- The Japanese yen was at 110.26 per dollar
- The offshore yuan was at 6.4610 per dollar
Bonds
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 13 basis points to 1.43%
Commodities
- Brent crude oil was at USD/Bbl 73.28
- Gold was at USD/OZ 1746.77
- Iron ore was at USD/T 120.45