Data:
Monday
- No real impactful data
Tuesday
- USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
- GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
- FOMC Member Bowman & Evans Speaks
- AUD NAB Business Confidence: prev. 10. vs. 21
- EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment: exp. 20.6 vs. 25.9
- EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment: exp. 20.3 vs. 31.7
Wednesday
- EUR ECB President Lagarde Speaks
- USD PPI Oct: exp. 0.6% vs. 0.6%
- USD Core PPI Oct: exp. 0.5% vs. 0.4%
- GBP BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
- CAD BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
- CNY CPI y/y: exp. 1.4% vs. 1.5%
- CNY PPI y/y: exp. 12.2% vs. 13.5%
Thursday
- USD CPI Oct: exp. 0.6% vs. 0.9%
- USD Core CPI Oct: exp. 0.4% vs. 0.6%
- USD Unemployment Claims: exp. 257K vs. 267K
- AUD Employment Change: exp. 50.0K vs. -46.3K
- AUD Unemployment Rate: exp. 4.8% vs. 5.2%
- GBP Prelim GDP Q3: exp. 1.5% vs. 1.3%
Friday:
- US and CA Bank Holiday
Saturday:
- USD JOLTS Job Openings: exp. 10.02M
- USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment; exp. 72.5
- USD FOMC Member Williams Speaks
Sunday:
- No real impactful data
AUDUSD Day’s Range: 0.72872 – 0.73935
The Australian employment report for October was disappointing, with 46,300 declines in total employment mainly led by failing in full-time jobs (-40,400) and the unemployment rate was higher than the expectation (AUD Unemployment Rate: exp. 4.8% vs. 5.2%). This employment number is likely reflecting the impact of earlier strict lockdowns. With the rising vaccination rate and reopening of the economy, investors are confident about Australia’s next employment report. AUD dropped on the release of the employment number and continued to slide throughout the session and reached a daily low of 0.72872.
U.S. equities rebounded yesterday after a selloff in the previous session due to concern about high inflation that might result in a tighter monetary policy. U.S. inflation comes higher than market expectation, with headline and core inflation rising to the highest level in the past 30 years (U.S. CPI Oct: exp. 0.6% vs. 0.9% & Core CPI Oct: exp. 0.4% vs. 0.6%). Christmas shopping session is coming and there is no signal of ease in price pressure. Fed on Tuesday argued for policy patient, but investors are now bracing for a change in the monetary policy sooner rather than later as persistently high inflation could force Federal Reserve to taper at a more substantial rate or raise interest rate sooner than expected. Equities are gained due to strong earnings and the growth prospects of the economy. USD rallied as investors expects to weigh the potential action by the Fed.
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AUDUSD Daily Chart:
Major moves in the market:
Stocks
- The S&P 500 gained 0.06% , closed at 4649.27
- The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.35%, closed at 16036.25
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.44%, closed at 35921.23
- Australian’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.57%, closed at 7381.90
Currencies
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
- The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1447
- The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3361
- The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 114.08 per dollar
Bonds
- Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to -0.23%
- Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 0.92%
Commodities
- Brent crude oil was at USD/Bbl 82.59
- Gold was at USD/OZ 1862.25
- Iron ore was at USD/T 93.63